With this list of forces (chart 1) an impact-uncertainty classification matrix was conducted. This was done in order to visualize all identified forces and how they relate to each other from an impact-uncertainty point of view. The matrix clarified what forces has the greatest combination of anticipated impact and uncertainty and therefore needs additional analysis. The most critical forces, meaning having both high impact and uncertainty, is highlighted with red in the matrix.

 

As seen in the matrix the most critical forces was: 

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1. Deterioration of political situation (Political)

2. More affordable and available diving equipment (Economical)

3. Spontaneous trends that creates higher demand (Social)

4. Ecosystem disruption in the oceans (Environmental)

5. Permits for diving and instructing of diving (Legal)  

 

1 - Deterioration of geopolitical situation 

 

The deteriorating geopolitical situation is a crucial factor that affects both aspects significantly. While diving is primarily a hobby for most individuals and not a necessity for survival, if the geographical situation worsens, people would prioritize their other essential needs over diving. Consequently, such a shift in priorities would have a significant impact on the diving industry. This perspective aligns with Maslow's hierarchy of needs, which suggests that fulfilling more fundamental needs is necessary before pursuing self-actualization. 

 

Another important aspect to consider is the prioritization of various issues by world leaders and agencies. During times of global crisis, resources are typically allocated to address the most pressing concerns. Therefore, topics such as environmental problems and the state of our oceans may not receive the same level of attention and actions taken.

 

Furthermore, factors like war, starvation or other forces that could have a negative impact on the geographical situation are for natural reasons highly uncertain. 

 

2 - More affordable and available diving equipment 

 

Another force that is critical in both aspects, impact as well as uncertainty, is the developments of diving equipment and its pricing. At the moment diving can be considered a relatively expensive sport with a high need of equipment. This fact makes the sport less available for the parts of the community as the economic part can prevent people from practicing it. A cut in costs would have a big impact on the demand since more people would afford it. The growing demand and number of users would have a big impact on the industry. To some extent the pricing of equipment and divers certificate can be considered predictable but there is still much uncertainty since this is dependent on both the market and technological development and disruptions. 

 

3 - Spontaneous trends creates demand for diving

 

Spontaneous trends are also evaluated to be a critical uncertainty. Similar to the effects from decreasing prices and more affordable and available equipment the occurrence of trends can impact the industry through its impact on the demand. For the majority of the divers the context and people is in equal focus as the actual diving. Moreover, people are easy to influence and today's society with its social media and continuous feed of new trends makes the future of diving and its demand uncertain. 

 

4 - Ecosystem disruption in the ocean

 

This critical force is evaluated to have a large impact on the diving industry and is considered a critical uncertainty. The consequences of changes to and disruption of the ecosystem is uncertain in many ways and it is possible that the demand would both increase and decrease as an effect. Since diving takes place in the oceans the industry is truly dependent on it and its state and changes to it would most certainly have a large impact. However it could both cause less diving due to unpleasant and unvisitable marine environments or more diving due to increased awareness and eagerness from the society to work towards stopping the disruption. 

 

5 - Permits for diving and instructions 

Lastly, diving is a water sport that requires training and specific permits. Any changes in the regulations governing these aspects would significantly impact the industry. There are already restrictions on who can become a diver, but these regulations could become more stringent or lenient in the future. Additionally, certain areas of our oceans are governed by governmental laws that, for example, prohibit diving in specific locations. Imposing stricter permit requirements regarding where diving is allowed would consequently limit the number of accessible sites to explore in our oceans.

 

Permits for diving and instructions is a critical uncertainty, since it is hard to predict to what extent changes could be made.